According to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose in the first quarter at an annualized rate of 2.0%. That's an acceleration from 0.5% growth in the fourth quarter and matched our estimate. The takeaway is that strong business investment in Artificial Intelligence for computers, software, and research and development added about 1.3 points to GDP growth, while personal consumption added 1.08 points. Excluding healthcare, consumer spending added just 0.57 points to growth. For those who wonder why the stock market has been performing so well when there is so much uncertainty, strong business investment with the potential to raise productivity across the economy offers a good fact-based reason. Spending by consumers rose 1.6% in 1Q, a slight slowdown from the 1.9% increase in 4Q. Spending on goods declined 0.1%. Within goods, nondurables were down 0.2%, which was weaker than we expected. Durables were flat, better than we expected. Motor vehicles and parts grew 5.2% following an 8.1% decline in 4Q. The huge services category grew 2.4%, a slight deceleration from 2.7% in 4Q. The category added about 1.1 points of growth, with 0.51 points coming from healthcare. Food services (restaurants) and accommodations (hotels) were a slightly bigger drag than in 4Q. Private investment grew 8.7%. Equipment grew 17.2%, with computer gear up 67%. Intellectual property products grew 13%, with software up 23%. Nonresidential construction declined 6.7% and residential construction (housing) declined 8.0%. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, (which excludes the trade balance, inventories, and government, to focus on core consumer spending and business investment) was up 2.5%, versus a 1.8% increase in 4Q. The GDP report also contains data on inflation, which remained elevated. The PCE Price Index increased 4.5% in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy, the index increased 4.3%. The more widely followed monthly numbers were released in a separate BEA report. PCE inflation was up 3.5% in March, while core PCE was up 3.2%.

U.S. consumers remain resilient and employed. We believe the 4.3% unemployment rate is the simplest and most-important indicator of the biggest component of the U.S. economy. Uncertainty is everywhere amid hostilities with Iran and elevated gasoline prices, and clarity is in short supply. But one thing is clear: 95.7% of the labor force is employed and it is easier to fill a gas tank and pay bills when you are employed. That is consistent with Argus's main takeaways from the recent first-quarter earnings reports issued by the largest U.S. banks. Indeed, credit quality is strong and consumers are resilient. Consumers are spending, borrowing, and investing. The banks are an important source of insights because they see payroll deposits, monitor spending on credit and debit cards, and know if consumers are paying their bills on time, And they know all of that before the numbers show up in government statistics. Despite all the economic uncertainty that dominates the news, the Misery Index, which is a measure of consumers' well-being that adds the unemployment rate and the annual CPI inflation rate, is under the average of 9.2% since 1949 and well below "stagflation" peaks around 20% during the Ford and Carter presidencies. Unemployment is low, but an energy-driven jump in the March CPI to 3.3% raised the index to 7.6%. While these numbers are collectively reassuring, we monitor a group of high-frequency indicators because we recognize that conditions can change quickly. Weekly claims for unemployment insurance remain well below levels that would signal a jump in layoffs. The Weekly Economic Index tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is based on 10 daily and weekly indicators of consumer behavior, the labor market, and production. It suggests that economic growth is slightly better than 2%. The Financial Stress Index (FSI), which was developed by the Office of Financial Research within the Department of the Treasury, shows that financial markets are functioning normally and stress levels are below average.

Last week featured another monumental run for the stock market, as the major indices recaptured all of the losses from the surge in energy prices as if nothing ever happened. Yes, cooler heads pre-vailed -- but investors have gone from extremely pessimistic to extremely optimistic. There was plenty of good news last week, the most obvious being the crash in oil prices on Friday after the sup-posed opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet over the weekend, Iran reclosed the Strait and oil prices are headed north again.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.