Give me the latest on the straight of Hormuz. Where where are things stand here after the ceasefire?

Brian, this is a complicated situation. I will borrow from Vice President J.D. Vance who called this fragile. I think that's a good word here. We saw the ceasefire yesterday, broker between the US and Iran. Already this morning, however, we are still seeing kinetic action in the Gulf. You saw attacks on the Lavan oil refinery in Iran. We've seen attacks on UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, most recently, the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which is the most crucial way to get oil out of the Persian Gulf

while the Strait of Hormuz is still closed off. I was talking to a few people this morning who were on the ground in the area and they were telling me, there is still not much action in the Strait of Hormuz. There are not many ships willing to take the risk yet, because who wants to be a first mover in this kind of environment where we don't know where this is going to go. That said, prices did come down on oil. We saw Brent and WTI both trade down by about 16% overnight.

Gasoline analysts saying that this could mean lower prices for Americans at the pump in the next few days. That said, if this breaks, if the ceasefire does not hold, those prices could be going right back up.

Jake, so you're saying in a few days consumers might be getting pump relief.

That's right. We've already seen some people saying that even with the initial surge of prices and maybe a slight bump up in the next day or two, it could be within the week or within a week or two that we start to see those prices come back down.

A lot of these gasoline companies are going to want to reprice quickly. Some of them will be forced to by different market factors. And so we could start to see some of that relief. But again, this is a highly kinetic situation. We have already seen signs that the ceasefire might be more fragile than the market is hoping for. And if it breaks, if this falls down, if these talks that are supposed to happen in Islamabad fall apart, you could see those prices going right back up.

Tom, bull market back on, right?

Sure, of course, Brian.

Well, how how how fragile can this be?

You heard Jake drop fragile a few times. I I hear where he's coming from and we're seeing stocks rally out of the gate here. Is this rally fragile? How cautious should one be here?

The news is way more fragile than the market. The market has been kind of immune and it's been it's actually held up remarkably well. and so I I think the tape is very different than the macro story. So the news is fragile. I don't think the tape is nearly as fragile.