I want to take a step back for a minute and just kind of think about the day and uh what the implications are for the future here. I think uh the ceasefire seems tentative and I I every analyst that we've talked to today has said you're going to expect some pushback in the other direction. We're probably going to be facing a lot of headline volatility for a while. And I don't know that this today uh represents an all-clear for investors, but do you think it's a meaningful reduction in volatility? Can investors sit back a little bit and not be so on defense? How are you advising your your clients, your institutional clients to play to play this?

Yes, so I think we have to kind of look at, you know, what just happened, right? So the the the ceasefire really kind of created relief and you saw stocks, we're seeing stocks rally and and oil drop, you know, sharply. But this is not a full resolution. It's a pause uh and you know, we think a pause with conditions. And so, you know, the market is treating it that way, we think, right? So positive but cautious. And we think about what really matters now as that situation kind of unfolds, um we talk about, I know everybody's talking about the straight of Hormuz. And so, you know, that is really one of the key things and so it's not fully back to normal.

Um everybody keeps saying that it is closed. It's not totally closed. You know, before uh before all of this, you know, of course 20% of the of the global oil kind of flowed through the straight and, you know, at the height of the disruption, you know, traffic fell to about 5%, right? of normal levels. And so now it's only kind of recovered about 10 to 15% of of those these uh their typical flows. And so, you know, some oil is getting through, um but it's selective and it's controlled.

And as we kind of look at um, you know, what we, you know, what we think might kind of play out, you know, um it's restricted and managed, right? And so when we think about what we're uh maybe like signs that might tell us that the things might go one way or the other, um, you know, if there if if like flows drop again, right? And oil and oil moves fast. Um shipping disruptions, right? So like delays or rerouting or rising kind of like insurance costs, um energy infrastructure risks, uh, you know, tanks or ports or pipelines, any kind of risk to those things.

Um and any shift uh, you know, in tone and I say this with with an Asterix, uh any shift in tone, um uh on on uh on either side or kind of like this renewed kind of military activity, we think kind of gives us pause and thinks that and we think that that kind of sparks some additional volatility, but this is not over.

But at the end of the day, you know, if you're investing for the long term, uh this is going to be a blip and it's definitely hard to hear, especially if you're looking at your retirement portfolio uh or looking at uh any portfolio every single day, but um, you know, this too shall pass.