Where are Fed cuts headed? What Polymarket & bonds are saying

President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Brooke DiPalma outlines where Polymarket users see Federal Reserve rate cuts headed for the rest of this year in light of the ceasefire news, while Lossdog founder and CEO Tom Sosnoff explains what the bond market (^FVX, ^TNX, ^TYX) is indicating about rate cuts.

For more predictions market insight, check out the new Yahoo Finance Polymarket Hub.

00:00 Speaker A

Brooke, the one thing I checked this morning uh outside of where people are headed on our site, it's this, where are rate cut expectations here this morning after the ceasefire news?

00:08 Speaker B

Right now, according to Polymarket, we're seeing an increase in odds that we'll see between zero, one or two. It seems like investors are sort of mixed here when it comes to that. But what we have been hearing from economist, so far this week, it seems like we were talking about a rate hike last week. Now we're back to the narrative that we could be seeing a rate cut later on this year. We have Bank of America, City calling for about one to three rate cuts. But Brian, we were thinking that a rate cut could happen in June, but it's now looking more likely for September still. So, a bit of a push back to the second half of the year, but that could have major implications on interest rates and borrowing rates as well, especially for those tech players.

00:37 Speaker A

Where are you thinking today in terms of rate cuts? Is that even in your thinking on days like this or you're just living more in the moment and and trading a tape that's been that's going to be real pretty wild, I would say over the next 24 hours.

00:50 Speaker C

Yesterday morning bonds traded uh just over, they almost traded 113. I think they got down to 11302 and today they traded up to 115. The difference between 113 and 115 in the long bond is essentially the difference between a rate cut and a rate rise. So at 113, you're talking, we've got to bump up rates. at 115, you're rate cuts are back on the table. So, I think that's probably if you want to talk about one asset class that has uh probably the most dramatic impact on, you know, just this overnight move, I kind of think it's probably the bond market and and I think that rate cuts are, you know, they're still they're a ways away, but they're back on the table and yesterday it was completely the opposite picture in the morning.